As Did Atlantis, So the Big Easy?

New Orleans will never fully recover.

It simply won’t. It’s one thing to rebuild in defiance of fanatics who fly planes into buildings, but quite another to stand in defiance of nature, which holds to no ideology whatsoever. America will, of course, make the attempt. Levee’s will be rebuilt; bigger and stronger, and un-godly amounts of cash will be funneled into rebuilding what, perhaps, should not be rebuilt.

Think about how much it will take to rebuild. Congress has just passed a resolution freeing up 10.5 billion in relief aid to the city of New Orleans, and "others" affected by hurricane Katrina. That’s "relief " aid, not rebuilding. And you can bet that money will run out long before the relief effort is complete.

How much would it take to restore New Orleans? I can’t speak with authority, but I can hazard a guess, and my guess puts that number in the hundreds of billions. But New Orleans is a doomed city regardless of how much money is pumped into reconstruction. And here’s why...

Firstly, New Orleans was founded in 1718 by Sieur de Bienville. In 1722 he made it the capital of the French colony of Louisiana, which covered the central third of the present-day United States. That’s 287 years of rich history, and that alone should be enough to inspire the resurrection of New Orleans. But it’s a losing battle any way you look at it.

"New Orleans is a city where no city, in fact, should be..." And in just under 300 years, New Orleans has grown from its original 1-square mile settlement to what it is today.

At this location, New Orleans teeters on the edge of the continental shelf of North America. Geologically speaking, it wasn't too long ago that the area now known as Louisiana was submerged under a huge embankment of the Gulf of Mexico. The Mississippi slowly, over a period of millions of years, began depositing silt along the ocean's bottom, until eventually land began to break its waves. About 1 million years ago, the river had built up for itself a fragile delta extending out into the gulf; a battle between the river and the sea that was much like a tug-of-war ensued, and the river won, barely. As the layers upon layers of silt slowly pushed back the gulf's waves, the river continued to build up the land in a huge fan-shaped delta extending from lower Illinois to Louisiana and Mississippi. A new layer of silt was deposited with each successive spring flood. Where once the Gulf jutted up into the heart of the North American continent, today the Mississippi juts out a hundred and fifty or so miles into the Gulf. However, due to the effects of man's efforts, the Mississippi is doomed to lose this geological game of tug-of-war.

The area that has since been drained by the canal system includes most of the present metropolitan area of New Orleans, including almost all of Orleans Parish (except the most eastern portions of that parish), the northern half of Jefferson Parish to an area just south of the cities of Westwego and Gretna, the northeastern corner of St. Charles Parish, the western portion of St. Bernard Parish, and the northern tip of Plaquermines Parish. Today, the series of canals and pumping stations continue to keep the land dry. Throughout the rainy season (which is nearly 3/4 of the year), they pump massive quantities of water out of the area into Lake Pontchartrain. In spite of this, the wetness of Louisiana proves, from time to time, to be too much for the pumps, and floods occur. However, not since 1927 has New Orleans flooded because of the height of the Mississippi or the lake. Added to the pumps' strength is the Bonnie Carre Spillway, built by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in St. Charles Parish. Through this spillway, floodwaters of the Mississippi can be diverted into Lake Pontchartrain, sparing the city of New Orleans from river floods. Most of the floods of the 20th century have been due to sustained periods of heavy rainfall and hurricanes. Yet, as beneficial as this system is to the city, inevitably it will spell New Orleans' doom. The levee system that has been built along the river, coupled with the canal system to keep the interior of the city dry, prevent the land from being replenished by the annual spring floods. As a result, the land will continue to sink until eventually there will be nothing to stop the waters of the Gulf to rush back upon the fragile land. In addition, the fresh water that is pumped into the brackish wetlands surrounding the city is creating an ecological disaster. When the Bonnie Carre Spillway is used in order to spare the city of New Orleans from floods, the consequences to the coastal estuary system is profound. As a result, in order to save itself from the waters surrounding it, the city of New Orleans is slowly destroying its own environment. The final death knoll of the city may very well come from the river itself. Scientists and environmentalists know that the Mississippi is trying to change its course that will bypass the city in favor of the shorter route to the Gulf through the Atchafalaya basin. So far, the Corps of Engineers has prevented the river from doing this. But, one day, it will happen, perhaps following a direct hit from a hurricane. As late summer and early fall approach every year (hurricane season), New Orleans stands with the threat that it will lose its own lifeline. No canal system and no levee system will prevent the disaster that will follow.

Here’s this from another source: Risk & Insurance, December 2000 by Lori Widmer

Louisiana's marshlands, the only buffer for hurricanes that come out of the Gulf, are slipping into the ocean at an alarming rate. New research indicates that just one major hurricane could put New Orleans under water.

The Big Easy is in big trouble. New Orleans is sinking. And fast. But what's the big deal? Local businesses and residents have heard it all before. They've built levees to control the raging Mississippi. They've developed pumping systems to deal with rain and flooding. They've dug canals to move the water out of the city. And still they survive, wearing the battle scars earned from each hurricane and each flood as badges of honor.

New research by the U.S. Geological Survey, however, indicates that New Orleans is sinking faster than many realize and could be under water within 50 years. The city is facing a series of issues--disappearing wetlands that protect from hurricanes, levees that are too low to hold back flood waters, rising water tables, to name a few--that if not addressed soon could have New Orleans suffering the same fate as Atlantis.

Dramatic, yes, but not unlikely, according to Shea Penland, geologist and professor at the University of New Orleans. "When we get the big hurricane and there are 10,000 people dead, the city government's been relocated to the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain, refugee camps have been set up and there $10 billion plus in losses, what then?" he asks.

As of today, new estimates put the death toll at over 10,000 dead. There are $10 billion in losses, or will be, and probably much more. How long before the city government moves it's operation northward? Please note, this article was written almost 5 years ago by Risk & Insurance magazine, who, according to their own statement, provides "...insight, information and strategies [business executives and insurance professionals] need to mitigate challenging business risks."

Of course, we, the citizens of the United States of America will make the attempt, and sacrifice much to rebuild New Orleans. We should, though, ask the question, "should we even try to rebuild New Orleans?" What makes New Orleans so important that we should spend unheard of amounts of cash to rebuild what may very well sink into the sea in our lifetime? Shipping. New Orleans provides a unique and strategic shipping port for the entire Midwest, if not the entire country. The Mississippi river is a primary shipping route to ports from the Gulf of Mexico to Canada and points east and west along the way. The city’s strategic location brings commerce and industry with it. And decadence, but that’s not at issue here. Simply said, New Orleans is important to our national economy. But no, that’s not true. The city of New Orleans is not important; the port is, and the question should be asked, would it not be easier/more prudent to relocate the port "…to the northern shore of Lake Ponchartrain...".

How many homes and neighborhoods will be too damaged by wind, floodwaters, and arson to be salvaged? Also, how much of New Orleans will need to be torn down before anyone can move back in and rebuild? Furthermore, a great many of those refugees being relocated out of state, by the thousands, are poor, with no means to rebuild. Sad as that is, realistically, how many will actually rebuild?

The United States of America can certainly rebuild New Orleans, but how much will it cost? Can the nation afford to funnel billions-- perhaps trillions –of dollars to restore New Orleans to its former glory? Especially in light of incontrovertible evidence that it won’t matter in the long run. New Orleans will, one day soon, fall into the sea.

Personally, I want to see America rise to the challenge, but pragmatically, I wonder if it’s worth it.

Also to consider is how the rest of the world views us during this crisis. I heard a report this morning of a Sri Lankan who said he was disgusted by what he was seeing in New Orleans. To paraphrase: "When the tsunami struck everyone worked together, including tourists, to alleviate the suffering. But Americans, who once gave so generously to the tsunami recovery effort, can't do the same for themselves and have descended into brutality; killing, looting, firing buildings, and firing upon their would-be rescuers." It would seem America is great at relieving suffering around the world, but when at home we are too divided to do what is necessary, as quickly as necessary.

Perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but the outlook appears bleak. On top of all this, the finger pointing has already begun. The Honorable Ray Nagin, mayor of New Orleans is blaming everyone but himself, claiming no relief is there or coming, when that is simply not the case. Mr. Nagin could have done more, preventatively, to reduce the amount of suffering now rampant in the Big Easy; an appellation becoming more and more an oxymoron… Big problems with no Easy solution. But he's also dropped the ball in the midst of this crisis. Instead of pulling all his resources together, he has allowed them to fragment-- some even deserting their posts. The Governor of Louisiana has declared that, if necessary, law enforcement should exert deadly force to stop the looting, and burning of New Orleans, and all Mayor Nagin can do is curse and point his fingers. We should, of course give him some latitude, considering the dilemma he now finds himself, and his city drowning in.

Remember 9/11? Rudy Giuliani was a stellar example of leadership and a source of strength to everyone in New York, as well as the rest of the Nation. Mr. Nagin has fallen so short of that ideal it's almost embarrassing. Almost. After all, let's agree to extend him some latitude; the loss of an entire city & 10,000 plus dead is far greater than the losses suffered at the twin towers and its surrounding complex. Though I would never minimize or trivialize what we lost at GroundZero. But the biggest difference between the two is, quite simply this... No one knew the planes were coming. New Orleans had fair warning.

And now, whether we choose to accept it or not, New Orleans will go the way of all things. Be it the next hurricane strike to come along [pray it doesn't happen this season], or years from now when she succumbs to the sea.