Seachange

"Is it just me, or is the blogosphere holding its collective breath over the election? The handful of blogs I read daily are talking about anything but the seachange that appears to be under way."

The Erudite Redneck

I know where ER is on the elections. Anyone who knows ER knows where he is on the upcoming mid-term elections. And I know a lot of people out there who lean similarly to ER are giddy and more than a bit light-headed over their all-but-assured take over of one, possibly both, houses of Congress in just under two weeks. And I can empathize. Honest. Didn't I feel that same giddiness when Republican's took the House in '94?

But I'm not avoiding the issue. If anything, I'm bored with the issue, or rather the Liberal interpretation of the issue. You see, I remember the polls running up to the 2000 election; Albert Gore was the shoe-in... No one could beat him, certainly not that pip-squeak from Texas.

I also remember the polls leading up to the 2004 election; John Kerry was the heir-apparent to the Constitutional throne. There was no way that liar from Texas was going to win.

So here I am now, two weeks out from the mid-terms, and I'm seeing all these polls predicting yet another Democratic blow-out.

...

One thing I've noticed over the last twelve years, specifically (I say specifically because that's when I actually began to pay serious attention to politics), is that polls are pre-designed and predisposed to achieve a specific, and might I add 'Desired', result. The only polls that matter are the ones 1 week to 3 days out.

And here's why. CBS, ABC, NBC, CNN, New York Times, USA Today, and countless others all put out polls months and weeks in advance of any election. For the most part these polls are all either skewed, or mis-reported to advance the truth these purveyors of truth wish to convey, which is indistinguishable from their own ideological bent. Truth, months out from an election is mutable; it's whatever truth the polsters want to make true. After all, repeat a lie often enough, and the public will believe it for truth. This 'truism' has been borne out time and time again throughout the history of politics.

That the Media are willing water carriers for the Democratic/Liberal agenda is also incontrovertible, despite objections to the contrary, but I'm straying from my point.

The only polls that mean an ounce of diddly are the ones that begin to appear two weeks out from the election. Why, you ask? Months out, polsters can produce whatever truths they want without it affecting their credibility, but two weeks out? One week? Days? Their reputation is at stake. The results of months prior can be attributed to changes in the gestalt mind of the electorate. But just prior to election day, they have to be accurate to insure the polsters standing as a credible polling outfit.

The simple truth is, every race tightens just before the election, and fortunes change as easily as wind direction. All it takes is a well-timed scandal or two and the fate and fortunes of any number of candidates are either sealed or secured.

Another simple truth? The only poll that really counts is the one every voter participates in on election day.

So. Am I personally hushed by breathless anticipation? For glad fortunes or the fall of the guillotine's blade? Not really. I only have one vote, one voice. I do feel anticipation, but I'm certainly not breathless-- That would be retarded.